One after another the BJP ruled states have started making population control laws. Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Assam, and now even Karnataka and Gujarat are in preparation. Looking back similar moves by BJP ruled states in succession have been seen during adoption of changed labour laws, laws against cow-slaughter and beef eating, then religious conversion and inter-faith marriage. Obviously this is also a concerted move taken up by BJP throughout the country. In fact the BJP central leadership has been attempting to move private member's bill on population control in the parliament twice. Earlier also in 2018 four BJP MPs submitted a petition to the President signed by 125 MPs for adopting a two-child norm in the country. Thus quite clearly the issue of population control is one of their long-standing agenda. In line with this move recently in UP a draft law based on two-child norm called Uttar Pradesh population (Control, stabilization and Welfare) Act, 2021 has been put up from 19th July 2021 for suggestions from public.
But why this urgency for a law on population control? According to C T Ravi, a BJP National Secretary and Karnataka MLA-- " With limited natural resources available, it will be difficult to meet the needs of every citizen if there is a population explosion " . Is there really some sort of population explosion occurring in this country? Population explosion means rapid population growth resulting from high birth rate much higher than death rate. But surprisingly facts show something completely different. The Central Government in an affidavit placed before the Supreme Court in December 2020 said Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was on the decline. It is the average number of children that a woman bears in a lifetime. Further it was mentioned that 25 out of 36 states and Union Territories have achieved the target TFR of 2.1. TFR of 2.1 is the rate sufficient for mere replacement of parents by their children thus maintaining the population at the same level without growth in numbers. Hence it is called the replacement rate and it is the target figure for population control. Decreasing from TFR 3.2 in 2000 to 2.2 in 2018 India's TFR is already substantially down. It indicates clearly that population growth in this country is slowing down and flattening.
Only the backward so-called BIMARU states of North and Central India have population increase rates more than the national average. According to data from National Family Health Survey 2015-16 (NFHS-4) UP has a TFR of 2.7, Bihar 3.4, Jharkhand 2.6, Rajasthan 2.4 and Madhya Pradesh 2.3, well above the national average. However the trends for these states are also showing improvement in terms of population control in the subsequent years. UP's fertility rate nearly became half from 4.82 in 1993 to 2.7 in 2016. The Technical Group on Population Projections for the Period of 2011-2036 constituted by the National Commission on Population has in July 2020 projected that according to prevailing trend Uttar Pradesh will achieve TFR 2.1 i.e. the replacement level by 2025. [https://outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-no-proof-of-population-explosion-in-up-pfi-head-poonam-muttreja/387925].
Of course our society is still mired in backwardness and there are large stretches where either merely meagre crumbs from the prevailing capitalist led " development " has percolated up to the poor or not even that. In spite of that the country as a whole has reached a stage showing a trend of population stabilization. This is because with passage of time a somewhat patchy development has taken place in this country through slow half-hearted reforms by the ruling classes from the top. That has brought a very restricted progress of modern forms of production and through it spread of some sort of awareness and education. This has somewhat influenced the masses over a period leading to planned smaller families and lower fertility rates in recent decades. Hence what is the necessity of raising the bogey of population explosion?
Here of course one of the prominent agenda of BJP-Sangh Parivar's communal-fascist program comes into play. The BJP-Sangh Parivar organizations always overtly or covertly point out towards the Muslim community as being the major source of population increase in this country blaming them for their religious bigotry and backwardness. Thus recently only in last July in Assam the RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat said there has been an organized attempt to increase Muslim population in India since 1930 with a motive to establish dominance of Muslims making this country another Pakistan. BJP leaders like Shakshi Maharaj are seen exhorting Hindus to have four children. There is a repeated vilification campaign targeting the Muslims on this alibi. That is why Yogi government in its state's new population control policy has hinted at it couched in so many words by stating, " …attempts would be made to ensure there is a population balance among various communities " . Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma of Assam says, " numerous social ills in Assam " could be overcome if the " immigrant Muslim community adopts decent family planning norms " .
Actually the population growth rates are not related in any way to religion. Rather population growth rate and fertility rate (TFR) has been higher where backwardness in socio-economic conditions prevail. Thus the Muslim women's fertility rate in comparatively developed regions like Kerala, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh stood at 2.3, 2.2, and 1.8 respectively much lower compared the Hindu women's fertility rate of 2.9, 2.8, and 2.6 in the backward regions of Bihar, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. Similarly looking outside the pale of religion the population growth rate among SCs and STs are much higher than upper caste people of the country. Thus STs, the least developed among social categories, had the highest fertility rate of 2.5. It is 2.3 for SCs and 2.2 for OBCs, while the upper castes had the lowest fertility rate of 1.9.[Fertility rate below replacement level for all but Hindus and Muslims - Rema Nagarajan, TNN, Jan 12, 2018] Even looking outside the country the top three countries with highest fertility rate in the world Niger, Angola, and Democratic Republic of Congo are all poor countries among which two have Christian majority. On the contrary fertility rate in the prosperous Muslim countries are - Saudi Arabia-2.2, Turkey-2.07, and UAE-1.38, this 2021.
Hence it is utterly incorrect in any way to merely point at the Muslims for that higher rate. It is actually the socio-economic backwardness that accounts for it. Remember the government constituted Sachar Committee Report on the social, economic and educational status of the Muslim community of India. Although published quite some time back, in 2006, it revealed quite comprehensively the extent of deprivation of the Muslim community, which holds true till today, as there hasn't been any drastic change in the rate of slow progress and the ever growing disparity. There in that Report we saw the derelict condition in which the Muslims live, like also the vast multitude of the lower caste, dalit and tribal people. The literacy rate among Muslims is low. Participation of Muslim salaried workers in both the public and private sectors is quite low (as is true also for SCs/STs), as more Muslims are in inferior jobs. The access of this section to basic amenities is also veritable proof of their backward condition: • About one third of small villages with high concentration of Muslims do not have any educational institutions. • About 40% of large villages with a substantial Muslim concentration do not have any medical facilities. About levels of poverty---their conditions are only slightly better than those of SCs/STS. Hence this starkly reveals the extent of backwardness and the lack of involvement of the Muslim community in modern relations of social production and even the SC and STs which leads to lack of awareness, education, particularly of their women, playing the role in higher levels of procreation.
Still with passage of time like other sections of society the Muslim community's population growth is also flattening. In the 1971 census the Muslim population growth rate went down from 32.48% to 30.78%. From then on it has been declining in every subsequent census. Comparing growth rates of all communities in 2001 and 2011 censuses, the sharpest decline has been for Muslims - from 29.52% to 24.60%, faster even than the Hindus whose growth rate declined merely from 19.92% to 17.75%.
Actually the trend of India's demographic changes has been reversed to a significant extent and one may say that the problem of uncontrolled population growth has become a thing of the past. During the period of 1950s to 1970s the death rate declined much faster than birth rate. As a result the average population growth rate displayed continually increasing trend from the 1950s to 1980s. Then with gradual progress of society from the 1980s there started a decline in birth rate outpacing decline in death rate. Hence the population growth rate started decreasing. During the decade of 1991-2001 there has been the sharpest decline in decadal growth of population up till now. Therefore it's amply clear that population explosion is a myth.
But the BJP governments' population laws do not stop here. There is another disturbing aspect to it. It is trying to impose the two-child norm through punitive measures. According to the Population Control Law proposed by UP government, 'Incentives' will be given to public servants, who with two-children, opts for sterilization. Such incentives will be – two additional increments in their government service, 3 per cent additional employer's contribution to national pension, rebates for water, electricity and house tax, soft loan with nominal interest for purchasing or construction of house, subsidy for purchasing plot of land or house from Housing Development Board etc.. For public servants with one child, the incentives will be further in addition--two more additional increments, free health care and insurance cover to child up to 20 years of age, free education for the child up to graduation level, preference in admission to institutions including IIM and AIIMS, preference in government jobs, scholarship for higher studies for girl child. Even some of these incentives will also be given to those are not public servants but have two-children or one child. For BPL families having one child, if the child is a boy a lump sum amount of 80 thousand and if the child is a girl 1 lakh rupees will be given.
Then in the name of 'Disincentives' those who will have more than two-children after commencement of the act will neither get the above incentives and will further be barred from getting benefits of Government sponsored welfare schemes, ration card entitlements will be restricted to four persons, they will not be able to contest Local Body elections, cannot apply for government jobs and even promotions for those already in government jobs will be barred.
Similarly in Assam in the year 2017 the BJP ruled state government adopted a policy in the Population & Women Empowerment Policy of Assam. In that policy paper it was mentioned that candidates having two-children only will be eligible for Government employment. Further the Government stated about legislating legal provision to bar people with more than two-children to take part in Panchayat and Municipal Body elections. Accordingly in 2018 the Panchayat Act was amended. In 2019 the Assam state government once again through Gazette Notification barred people with more than two-children to get into Government Services from 1st January 2021. And now in June 2021 the state government is planning for restricting availability of state's welfare schemes to families who only follow the Governments two-child norm.
Firstly, everyone knows what emerges from unbridled powers in the hand of the governments to give incentive to some and curtail and punish other sections of the masses as it wishes. Without any iota of doubt it leads to unhindered corruption, nepotism and discrimination at will.
Secondly, quite amusingly the draft Law of Uttar Pradesh states - "it is necessary to control, stabilizes the population of the State for promotion of sustainable development with more equitable distribution. " Is this the path of 'equitable' distribution? The already backward sections, with higher TFR, are the large sections of masses in the rural areas. They are the most poor, deprived sections. Hence due to this step of 'Incentives' and 'Disincentives' in the proposed law, whatever little opportunities and so-called welfare benefits are provided by the state that will remain confined within a much smaller section. It must be remembered that these are states with a large mass in the backward regions having generally high TFRs. Instead of addressing the problems in the way of real path to development and awareness of these poor, backward masses the governments have takenthe path of imposing the two-child norm through incentives to a comparatively developed few, denying those for the bigger sections. So they will be further deprived in areas of education, jobs, welfare measures and government services. With such backward levels of life and its understanding prevailing in society, on imposition of restrictions for number of children, female foeticide may become more rampant. They are dragging the society further into backwardness. This will only aggravate the gulf further between the privileged few and the deprived multitude.
Why is the ruling party, the BJP-Sangh Parivar imposing such a law? Firstly, they are utilizing these laws to further propagandize their communal-fascist politics. Facts are showing that overpopulation is not the malaise that afflicts the masses of present society. Rather very slow and patchy development over the decades has brought about some sort of gradual flattening of the population growth rate. It has revealed that religion is also not the cause of higher rates of population growth. But still they want to divide the masses creating animosity among the Hindu masses by propagandizing that all the ills and deprivation of the masses is mainly due to the Muslims procreating on a large scale. For their Hindutva politics this is an important issue to stoke up communal passions among the Hindus.
Secondly, the ruling classes instead of ensuring real advancement of vast masses of society and particularly the women, by sweeping away backwardness and poverty from the large stretches of this country are continuously creating an increasing gulf of disparity between a handful of filthily rich and the millions of masses in dire poverty. Addressing that is the real step to 'sustainable' and 'equitable' growth for all, which controls population growth in the process. Instead of addressing these problems the BJP-Sangh Parivar led governments are putting the onus of the problem on the masses as if the poor are creating the problems in their lives by procreating more. This is another of those ploys to divert the attention of the public from their role of pauperizing the masses for benefit of the exploiters of this system.
Finally at the end of the day this leads further into another very important question - can population growth really be the reason for insufficient resources and hunger and poverty for the poor masses? The correct answer to this question is also to be found out some other time.
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